Commentary on "Different roles of interpersonal trust and institutional trust in COVID-19 pandemic control".

An increasing number of epidemiologic studies have identified trust as a social determinant of COVID-19 mortality. Trust influences public compliance with policies aimed at containing the pandemic through physical distancing, wearing masks, and vaccine uptake. However, whilst some forms of trust are public assets (e.g., trust in government), others might be liabilities (e.g., trust in close friends and family members). Contributing to this body of work, Lou et al. (2022) examined associations of trust with COVID-19 fatality rates and willingness to get tested for COVID-19. Using correlation analyses, behavioral experiments, and agent-based modeling, they found institutional trust predicted lower COVID-19 fatality rates and greater willingness to get tested. In contrast, interpersonal trust predicted the speed with which COVID-19 was controlled in the early stages of the pandemic and people's willingness to obey norms preventing the spread of the virus (e.g., decreased nonessential outdoor activity). Investigations such as this offer useful knowledge to public health officials on ways to mitigate a pandemic. This commentary examines the pivotal role of social science in pandemic control, which up to now has been underfunded and overshadowed by the race to develop vaccines. We also highlight the importance of theory, particularly in research on trust, to producing evidence that is replicable and meaningful for policy application.

Response to Lindström (2020) on "The trouble with trust: Time-series analysis of social capital, income inequality, and COVID-19 deaths in 84 countries".

There is substantial cross-national variation in the damage caused by COVID-19 and scant evidence on social and cultural factors that contribute to this variation. Our ecologic study of country differences in COVID-19 mortality found that deaths have increased faster in societies that had less confidence in state institutions and less civic engagement, more social trust and group affiliations, and higher income inequality (Elgar et al., 2020). Here, we respond to three criticisms of the study raised by Lindström (2020) regarding (1) socioeconomic patterns in influenza pandemics and the current COVID-19 pandemic, (2) data gaps in cross-national studies of wealth inequality and (3) the robustness of our findings across previous survey cycles of the World Values Survey. We stand by our results and encourage further investigation using larger samples, longer time periods and different approaches and measures. It is vital for social science to contribute to policy decisions that can mitigate the enormous human toll of the pandemic.

The trouble with trust: Time-series analysis of social capital, income inequality, and COVID-19 deaths in 84 countries.

Can social contextual factors explain international differences in the spread of COVID-19? It is widely assumed that social cohesion, public confidence in government sources of health information and general concern for the welfare of others support health advisories during a pandemic and save lives. We tested this assumption through a time-series analysis of cross-national differences in COVID-19 mortality during an early phase of the pandemic. Country data on income inequality and four dimensions of social capital (trust, group affiliations, civic responsibility and confidence in public institutions) were linked to data on COVID-19 deaths in 84 countries. Associations with deaths were examined using Poisson regression with population-averaged estimators. During a 30-day period after recording their tenth death, mortality was positively related to income inequality, trust and group affiliations and negatively related to social capital from civic engagement and confidence in state institutions. These associations held in bivariate and mutually controlled regression models with controls for population size, age and wealth. The results indicate that societies that are more economically unequal and lack capacity in some dimensions of social capital experienced more COVID-19 deaths. Social trust and belonging to groups were associated with more deaths, possibly due to behavioural contagion and incongruence with physical distancing policy. Some countries require a more robust public health response to contain the spread and impact of COVID-19 due to economic and social divisions within them.